Yes, I could spend many paragraphs explaining how the tawdry Trump quotes are shockingly poor. Trump is a buffoon of the highest order. So, what now? Here are my succinct thoughts:
- He won’t quit.
- His rank and file supporters will still largely support him.
- They will actually double down (see the Backfire Effect) in their defense of Trump.
- As such, he will only see a small dip in support. Many will claim they are not supporting Trump, but “the policies” or, broadly, the Republican position. This will be the common post-hoc rationalisation.
- The dislike of Clinton (largely overblown by many, and capable of being used as a mechanism to retain support for the bombastic and imbecilic Trump) will still prove a thorn in the side of attracting disaffected voters over to the Democratic cause.
- If Pence was to magically get the ticket instead of Trump, then you could actually see a huge upsurge in Republican voting. This would be my worst case scenario since I think the GOP would actually get a higher vote share than they would have done with the ticket reversed. The disaffected would return in droves, even though Pence is, himself, a science-denying wingnut.
Five Thirty-Eight has some great analysis and probabilities of winning the presidency. Check it out.
Let me know your thoughts after these latest scandals. What is interesting is that some, like the producer of The Apprentice, have stated this is just the start of the things that are to be released on Trump, deemed to be “far worse”.
— Bill Pruitt (@billpruitt) October 8, 2016
— Ed Henry (@edhenry) October 8, 2016
It’s all happening!