New map captures explosive rise of the nonreligious

Beyond the tumult of elections and the noise of the news cycle, there are bigger trends that will shape the future of our world. One of these trends is the growth of the “nones”—the Americans who identify as atheist, agnostic, or who just don’t belong to any religion.

Decades ago, the nones were a tiny minority. But in the early 21st century, their numbers started growing. And that growth was rapid: less like a gentle ramp, more like a rocket blasting off.

In a little under two decades, the nones rose from insignificance to national prominence. They became a force to be reckoned with, counterbalancing the influence of the religious right and arguably swinging presidential elections.

And they’re still growing. As recently as 2019, the nones were as numerous as Roman Catholics and evangelicals, the two largest religious groups in America. However, that three-way tie isn’t a tie anymore.

According to a 2024 Pew survey, the nones have moved into the lead:

When Americans are asked to check a box indicating their religious affiliation, 28% now check ‘none.’

A new study from Pew Research finds that the religiously unaffiliated – a group comprised of atheists, agnostic and those who say their religion is “nothing in particular” – is now the largest cohort in the U.S. They’re more prevalent among American adults than Catholics (23%) or evangelical Protestants (24%).

“Religious ‘Nones’ are now the largest single group in the U.S.” Jason DeRose, NPR, 24 January 2024.

In the not-too-distant future, if the nones continue this growth, it’s conceivable they could become a majority of Americans—period.

Too good to be true?

Does this sound too good to be true? Then consider the evidence in this post: Which States Are the Least Religious? Which are the Most?, from political scientist Ryan Burge’s site Graphs About Religion.

Based on data from the Cooperative Election Study conducted in 2008 and in 2022, it shows how much American opinions have shifted in just the last fourteen years. Here’s the big picture, which the color coding makes dramatically clear. With the nonreligious population represented in blue, it looks like a tsunami washing across the country:

In 2008, the nones were a minority in every state. Even in the liberal New England states, they were a fraction of the population.

In 2022, the nones have become an outright majority in seven states—Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Alaska (!), Montana (!), New Hampshire and Maine. Several other states, including California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, are in the high forties. Even in the rural Midwest and the ex-Confederate Deep South, you have to look hard to find a state where the Nones aren’t at least a third of the population.

Some of this may be sampling error, especially in sparsely populated states. Burge notes that those Montana results, for example, are based on just 224 respondents.

Still, the overall trend is dramatic and so sharp as to be undeniable. Their population share has increased everywhere (except, apparently, North Dakota). In some states, like Connecticut, they’ve almost doubled. Georgia and Mississippi are now less religious than Michigan and Colorado were in 2008.

Who’s losing, who’s gaining

Most of this growth has come at the expense of Christians, especially Protestants. And their decline is only getting steeper. As Mark Sumner notes:

The percentage of Americans who call themselves Protestant—including evangelicals—has dropped from 70% in 1953 to 34% in 2022, according to Gallup. That’s a decline of more than 0.5% a year. Since 2016, the rate has averaged 0.67% a year.

“Donald Trump is filling the God-shaped hole in Republicans’ lives.” Mark Sumner, Daily Kos, 15 January 2024.

As slow as it can seem on a human scale, on a societal scale, this is a massive and unprecedented shift. The nones have grown in every demographic group that’s been surveyed, both among white people and racial minorities. For example, in a recent Pew survey of Asian American ethnic groups:

Like the U.S. public as a whole, a growing percentage of Asian Americans are not affiliated with any religion, and the share who identify as Christian has declined, according to a new Pew Research Center survey exploring religion among Asian American adults.

…Today, 32% of Asian Americans are religiously unaffiliated, up from 26% in 2012.

Christianity is still the largest faith group among Asian Americans (34%).

But Christianity has also seen the sharpest decline, down 8 percentage points since 2012.

The graying of the church

Of course, there’s no guarantee that the nones will keep growing until we’re a majority in every state. There may be some natural limit that we’ll eventually run into. Or organized religion could go through a spontaneous nationwide revival.

However, there’s another data point that indicates that this cultural shift isn’t going to stop any time soon. Namely, frequent churchgoers are older than the American average. Meanwhile, those younger than the average are even less religious:

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey, 17% of Americans are 65 and older. In FACT’s study, 33% of U.S. congregations are senior citizens.

The other age group where congregations differ dramatically from the U.S. as a whole is 18-34 year olds. Young adults make up 23% of the population but only 14% of churches.

“Average U.S. Pastor and Churchgoer Grow Older.” Aaron Earls, Lifeway Research, 1 November 2021.

This means that, as ordinary generational turnover proceeds, we have every reason to expect that religion will keep fading away. The regressive, bigoted and anti-democratic political currents that draw their strength from religion, likewise, will continue to weaken and fragment.

While it won’t solve every problem in the world, it can only be a good thing that religion is losing strength and influence. The toxic manifestations of fundamentalism, which have oppressed humanity and held back progress for so long, are headed for a future of steady decline and eventual disappearance.